I am still totally a beginner.
This "replacement" theory about Israel does not ring true to me.

God made EIGHT Binding Convenants in the Bible, in His Word.
FIVE of them are with Israel. Four are unconditional:
1. The Abrahamic (Gen. 12:1–7)

2. Land (Gen.13:14–17; Dt. 29:1—30:20)

3. Davidic (2 Sam. 7:1–17)

4. New Covenants (Jer. 31:31–34).

In these "Unconditional Convenants" - it means God did Everything. Abraham was passive as God Promised over him what He Will Do, who He Will Bless.
In short, this proves (to me) that the filfillment of these promises were solely based on God's Integrity. Who He is.
Like the Grace of Jesus, by His Death - I RECEIVE Life and Forgiveness.
Me, I "did" nothing, not-one-thing - to deserve or receive this. In fact, like all of us before we turn to and accept and receive Jesus - I was His enemy. Working against Him.

A sinner, as truly as David was a sinner - I pray daily to hear God, align and improve to His Desires.
To Be a Woman after God's Own Heart.

In studying, the Bible teaches five facts about the unconditional covenants:

1. They depend on God’s faithfulness, not Israel’s.

2. They are to be interpreted literally.

3. They were made with Israel, not the church (Jer. 31:31–34; Heb. 8:8).

4. They were never repealed or replaced because of Israel’s sinfulness.

5. They will be Israel’s possession for eternity (Rom. 9:4).

This fifth, covenant commonly called the Mosaic or Old Covenant (Ex. 19:5ff), was conditional.

It troubles me, it troubles Christianity.
I am digging deeper to really understand, for I cannot believe that Land, those People (the family into whom I am grafted) can for any reason fall away from God's promisees. Yet it is conditional.

I need Help Holy Spirit to understand.

This covenant was to truly set apart the People of israel - as God's Chosen.

BUT - AND - they had to keep up their end.

They had to keep their promise and God's Law. Not a uni-lateral promise: blessings that God promises are directly related to Israel’s obedience to the Mosaic Law. If Israel is obedient, then God will bless them, but if they disobey, then God will punish them. The blessings and curses that are associated with this conditional covenant are found in detail in Deuteronomy 28.

Where are we today with this? Why does this fire rage in Christianity? Is this not an on-going relationship between Our God and Us His People? What IS Israel?
Land
People
A Name
Me
The Church
All of the above? 

This is a law covenant. Israel must do certain things, not to be saved, but to stay in the land.
Right?
If they keep the covenant, they receive the blessings.
If they break the covenant, they will experience the curses of the covenant.
Right?

Am I - is "the Church" ..... in that "they"?

 Hebrews 8:8

"But as it is, Christ has obtained a ministry that is as much more excellent than the old as the covenant he mediates is better, since it is enacted on better promises. For if that first covenant had been faultless, there would have been no occasion to look for a second. For he finds fault with them when he says: "Behold, the days are coming, declares the Lord, when I will establish a new covenant with the house of Israel and with the house of Judah, not like the covenant that I made with their fathers on the day when I took them by the hand to bring them out of the land of Egypt. For they did not continue in my covenant, and so I showed no concern for them, declares the Lord." ~ Hebrews 8:6-9

AND THIS

2 Corinthians 3:6 Context

³Forasmuch as ye are manifestly declared to be the epistle of Christ ministered by us, written not with ink, but with the Spirit of the living God; not in tables of stone, but in fleshy tables of the heart. ⁴And such trust have we through Christ to God-ward: ⁵Not that we are sufficient of ourselves to think any thing as of ourselves; but our sufficiency is of God; ⁶Who also hath made us able ministers of the new testament; not of the letter, but of the spirit: for the letter killeth, but the spirit giveth life. ⁷But if the ministration of death, written and engraven in stones, was glorious, so that the children of Israel could not stedfastly behold the face of Moses for the glory of his countenance; which glory was to be done away: ⁸How shall not the ministration of the spirit be rather glorious? ⁹For if the ministration of condemnation be glory, much more doth the ministration of righteousness exceed in glory.

The Mosaic Covenant highlights the special relationship between God and Israel and the importance of His law.
BUT -> It ultimately leads to the New Covenant in Christ, teaching that obedience and holiness remain essential aspects of our relationship with God.

RIGHT?

So are WE the chosen people?
We who obey and believe?
Is Israel the Land, the Holy Land - where Jesus is to return?
Are the Jews in Israel who hate Jesus and Christians - are they the Chosen ones?
Are there within them the 144,000 that will help redeem the other Jews so that All May Be Saved?

I have read God's Book two full times, studied Bible Verse through classes, and am 165 days thorugh year three.
Still there is so much I cannot grasp.

I watch Israel - the Land, the Country, the Army, the Government, the People -  support and take in pedophiles, control world media and banking... I see the Evil. I see the fallen.
AND 
I see the protection God has given them as the wars build.
I cannot believe they were not provoked .... as equally as I cannot believe they did not know about October 7th's attack.
Just like George Bush and our 9/11.
Evil Government, Evil People. Satan at work.

And yet.... the Conditions of the Mosaic Covenant - could Israel, could the believers, could the church - the True Church (Remnant?) - ever fall away from God? Could I ever fall away?
Could the Land where Jesus SAID HE WOULD RETURN... ever be untrue?

Is Israel Still The Chosen People?
Exerpt:

STILL GOD’S CHOSEN PEOPLE?

Perhaps the best place to start would be with what the word Israel means. From the Scriptures, the first time the word is used is when God wrestles with Jacob and then renames Him Israel, which means “the one who wrestles with God.” Knowing this, it is obvious that “Israel” is not a genetic term that is passed through bloodlines down through families in the same way “Egyptian” would be. To be a member of Israel was a spiritual activity, of knowing God and wrestling with Him in intimate fellowship, not just merely inheriting the right DNA.

We know this is true, because God calls all kinds of ethnic peoples “Israel.” For instance, when the Israelites leave the land of Egypt, escaping from the slavery to be a free people serving their covenant God, the text tells us that a “mixed multitude” went out with them (Exodus 12:38). Apparently, there was a contingency of Egyptians who were so impressed by Yahweh, that they abandoned the empire of the Pharaohs and joined themselves with Israel, becoming followers of Jehovah. Just like the ethnic born sons of Abraham, they too were accounted as Israel.

Moses also reiterates that Israel was a spiritual distinction, when he admonishes the people to “circumcise their hearts” (Deuteronomy 10:16). All of the men of Israel had performed the physical sign of circumcision on their genitals, but there were many of them who were not true Israel in the heart (Romans 9:6). This is because being a member of true Israel was never about biology or physicality, but of spiritual allegiance to Yahweh.

Are the Jewish People Still Gods Chosen People

Exerpt
Since the second century, Christians have frequently asserted that the church has become the new people of God and that the Jewish people are no longer a part of God’s plan. They hold their view because the leadership of Israel rejected Jesus as the Messiah. And, most of the Jewish nation has followed that decision. This point of view is called “replacement theology” or supersessionism. But is this view valid? Are the Jewish people no longer God’s chosen nation? Let’s look at what the Scripture says.

.... 

God Is Faithful Despite Israel’s Unbelief—Romans 3:3-4

Paul begins by reminding the church at Rome of the advantages God gave the Jewish people, specifically that God entrusted them with “the oracles of God” (Rom. 3:2) or the Scriptures. Then, he turns to the problem of Jewish unbelief in Jesus. He asks and answers, “What then? If some did not believe, their unbelief will not nullify the faithfulness of God, will it? May it never be! Rather, let God be found true, though every man be found a liar” (vv. 3–4). The apostle’s point is that although most Jewish people did not believe in Jesus, God would always remain faithful to His promises. God will not abandon the Jewish people. He will protect and preserve them and, ultimately, fulfill every promise He ever made to them.

God’s Promises Still Belong to Israel—Romans 9:4-5

In context, these verses indicate that Paul is speaking of unbelieving Israel, his deep compassion for them, and his desire for them to believe in the Messiah Jesus. Nevertheless, in Romans 9:4–5, Paul describes the blessings and promises God has granted to the Jewish people, saying they “are Israelites, to whom belongs the adoption as sons, and the glory and the covenants and the giving of the Law and the temple service and the promises, whose are the fathers, and from whom is the Christ according to the flesh, who is over all, God blessed forever. Amen.” These verses are governed by the present-tense verb “are,” indicating that all these gifts from God still belong to the Jewish people, even those who do not believe in Jesus the Messiah. This means that every blessing God gave to Israel still belongs to them, with the greatest one being that God the Son became incarnate in Jewish humanity.

God Has Not Rejected Israel—Romans 11:1-5

It might seem logical that, since Israel as a nation rejected Jesus as the Messiah, God would reject them. In response to that conjecture, Paul exclaims “May it never be!” or “Absolutely not!” (Rom. 11:1). To prove his point, Paul uses himself as an example of a Jewish believer in Jesus. He then points to history. In Elijah’s time, God worked through a believing remnant to preserve 7,000 faithful Israelites (vv. 2–4). So, Paul argues, “In the same way then, there has also come to be at the present time a remnant according to God’s gracious choice” (v. 5). God has not abandoned or rejected the Jewish people, claims Paul. In every age, from the Old Testament to the present day, there will be a remnant (a small part of the whole) of Israel that will remain faithful to the Lord, until the day when the entire nation turns in faith to their Messiah Jesus (v. 26).

God Chooses and Loves Israel Despite Unbelief—
Romans 11:28-29

The most significant passage about the status of the Jewish people is found in Romans 11:28–29. At the outset, it asserts that “from the standpoint of the gospel they are enemies for your sake.” This does not say that Jewish people are enemies of God or of Christians. It does acknowledge that they are opposed to the gospel. Except for a remnant of Jewish people who have become followers of Jesus (cf. Rom. 11:1–5), tragically most Jewish people do not believe in Jesus and reject the good news that Jesus is the Redeemer of Israel. What is so sad about this rejection is that Jewish people need Jesus to experience God’s eternal forgiveness. Nevertheless, this verse is plainly describing Jewish people who do not believe in Jesus.

Despite their unbelief in Jesus, verses 28 and 29 also say Jewish people will continue to hold a special status as God’s people. This unique national identity (which is different than their spiritual status) has three important aspects:

I have to stay with the Word and

keep asking the Holy Spirit to be my teacher.

It can just overwhelm.
God you know my heart.